≡ Menu
Star Wars gift giving

Here at Monevator Towers we’ve hung the Out to Christmas *hiccup* Lunch shingle on the door, and we won’t be back until 2016.

Are you stuck for a last-minute Christmas present – or maybe something to help with those long days incarcerated enjoying quality time with the family?

Here are a few of 2015’s best new money-related reads to get you and your family and friends more Monevated:

The Devil’s Financial Dictionary – Jason Zweig spells out everything that’s wrong with how we think about money and investing. Funny.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction – All the cool kids are reading it. If you’re skeptical about people’s prospects of making accurate forecasts, then this is the book for you. (And if your uncle is skeptical, then this is the book for him.)

Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioural Economics – Brainy effort from the grandfather of behavioural economics. (Before you click through, have a think about which bias you’re about to exhibit…)

The Rise of the Robots – 2015 was the year that the puny apes who call themselves Earthlings finally began to consider their upcoming doom at the hands of their AI superiors [oops – did I print that out loud? reboot! reboot!]. Martin Ford’s account won FT/McKinsey Book of the Year for outlining the human dimension.

Other People’s Money – Veteran UK economist and author John Kay has had enough of the financial sector siphoning away our wealth. Persuasive.

Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor – Trent Griffin (himself no lowly player in the lifetime achievement stakes) has been studying Warren Buffett’s brilliant sidekick for a few years now. This book brings together all the wit and wisdom of every armchair investor’s favourite nonagenarian.

The Art of Execution – Blame the rise of passive investing or the miserable performance of the UK stock market in recent years, but it hasn’t been a vintage period for hands-on investing books. This one stood out for its unusual spin; it considers how the most successful investors manage to put up great returns despite picking duffers. The reviews are strong; I haven’t actually read it myself yet. (It’s on my Kindle, ready for the Queen’s Speech.)

A Wealth of Common Sense – Ben Carlson’s collected writings are the nearest thing I can offer to die-hard passive investors from the 2015 crop of new investing books – not because Carlson’s a purist, but because his engaging and thoughtful writing will lead pretty much everyone to the conclusion that indexing and rebalancing and otherwise ignoring the market is best for their wealth. Great blogger, too.

Thanks for reading in 2015 – and see you next year!

 

{ 10 comments }

How To Lose Money in 2016

A sad investing clown, yesterday.

HEY YOU!

Do you have too much money?

Are you feeling guilty about rising inequality – and are you brave enough to personally do something about it?

Perhaps you’re fed up with your friends entertaining each other with stories about how they lost the lot on their stock picks or were ripped-off by a pension provider – and now you see that your sensible investing mindset is good for your wallet but bad for your pub cred?

Or maybe you just watched Brewster’s Millions too many times as a kid?

Well fear not!

A brand new year is almost upon us, and with it the chance to turn over a new leaf to ensure you don’t make a single bright penny when you could be chucking one away instead!

If you want to lose money as an investor, then this is the guide for you.

These Seven Top Tips to Self-Destructing Your Wealth in 2016 will have you turned away by the bouncers at the 1% Club faster than you can say: “World’s Worst Investment Strategy.”

Get ready to lose the lot!

1. Sign up to some bearish investing websites

Good investing starts with a long-term businesslike mindset, so to really invest badly, it’s vital you start rotting your thinking without delay.

Where better to begin than by overdosing on some of the doom and gloom newsletters that have been predicting Financial Armageddon since, well, the start of the last bull market?

They’ll have you swapping your carefully chosen funds and shares for baked beans and survival kits in no time.

Ideally find one that offers occasional tips on Russian gold miners, Panamanian oil explorers and the like.

That way you’ll get twice the bang for your buck.

2. Buy shares tipped by crazy-sounding people on social media

Once you’ve got an appropriately short-term trader-orientated pseudo-investing mentality going on, you’re ready to start pumping away your money on duffers.

Sure, you could swap your cheap and effective trackers for expensive actively-managed funds.

But now upfront commission has been done away with, high cost active funds are more for gentle folk who only want to do relatively badly when investing.

We’re trying to really crash and burn here!

Most fund managers are smart, not stupid. That’s why they find it so hard to beat each other and their index – and it’s why very few proper funds actually blow-up.

If you’re lucky you might have access to some sort of hard-charging 2/20% style hedge fund pursuing an esoteric investing strategy that’s ripe for a fall – perhaps emerging market or energy related high yield debt in today’s climate – but most of us would-be losers aren’t so fortunate.

No, for us the old way remains the best way to lose money – churning an ever-changing concentrated portfolio of loss-making story stocks that are kept alive by little more than a hope and a prayer.

A great way to begin is to buy shares tipped by a stranger you’ve never heard of called something like UltraBu11ish!Penguin443.

You don’t know anyone named like that?

Don’t worry – these people are a doddle to find on Twitter or on other social media platforms or discussion boards.

If you’re really lucky, he or she will claim inside information, or possibly reveal the existence of a ‘big seller’ who is about to stop dumping the shares, clearing the ‘overhang’ and enabling a rally.

(Fear not – the rally will never materialize and you’ll see your shares comfortably dwindle away towards nothing as you wait).

Alternatively, the tipster’s long experience of investing in the stock market whenever the High Street betting shops have closed might give them insights into the wily ways of market makers, enabling them to spot when these dastardly City folk are ‘shaking trees’.

Note: You don’t have to know what on earth ‘shaking trees’ is all about.

To lose money you just need to slavishly buy whatever they tip, sit back, and watch your portfolio plummet in a matter of days.

Easy!

3. Trade as much as possible

Studies have shown that those who trade the least tend to have the best performing portfolios.

So to lose money as quickly as possible, it makes sense to constantly churn your shares like it’s illegal to actually own the things.

Mobile phones have made this easier than ever. Perhaps you could do a bit of surreptitious trading at work, whenever you visit the bathroom or during particularly boring presentations?

Also, try to sell low and buy high.

This will maximise the speed at which you lose money.

4. Ignore trading costs

One reason turning over your portfolio is expensive is because trading costs money.

Sure, you can trade frustratingly cheaply with online brokers nowadays, but if you can wrack up 5-10 trades a day then you will soon offset their stupidly low charges.

Remember, it’s not just the multiple dealing fees that will be losing you money.

You’ll also pay the spread between the buying and selling price on the shares, and Stamp Duty is usually payable at 0.5% a pop when you buy a share in the UK, too.

A truly madcap day-trading approach is ideal, as it brings together the power of short-term myopic emotional investing, your compounded trading costs, and all that awful advice you’re now getting from your new friends on Twitter.

5. Borrow money to invest

It’s possible that even after following these tips you’re still not losing money at a rate that makes you comfortable shopping exclusively for yellow-stickered Best Before bargains at a grocer that’s being closed down for health and safety reasons.

So if you’re still suffering from excessive wealth – or you just want to get poorer faster – know that borrowing to invest is an ideal way to accelerate your plans.

Normally when you buy a share – even the sort of awful pump-and-dump penny stocks you’ll be specializing in – the most you can lose is all the money you put in.

Sounds a lot, sure. But losing it all can take months or even years.

However if you borrow and then buy with the proceeds, you can actually lose more money than you have and end up in debt!

This will help you lose all your money far faster than you might have thought possible before.

What’s more, punting on penny stocks with borrowed money raises the chances that you’ll make terrible short-term decisions in a panic, adding fuel to the self-immolating fire.

And if you’re really lucky you could end up trying to dig yourself out of the red with a series of ludicrous long shots that all go wrong!

Now the bad news – your bank manager is unlikely to actually give you any money to fritter away on the stock market.

Instead you might have to get creative with credit cards and other forms of misappropriated and hugely expensive debt.

Making ginormous spreadbets you don’t understand is another easy way to magnify how much you can lose with your ill-informed wagers.

Finally, do explore so-called ‘leveraged ETFs’, which multiply the daily ups and downs of the index that they track.

Best of all are leveraged ‘short’ ETFs, where the idea is you make money if the market which they follow goes down.

The way short ETFs are structured, you can lose money if you hold them for a few days or weeks – even if the underlying market actually does fall!

Genius.

If you don’t understand why this is the case (and very few people do) then they should be an ideal addition to your arsenal of money losing hand grenades.

6. Avoid ISAs and pension wrappers

If you follow all these tips, the chances of you making any money from investing in 2016 are very slim indeed.

However even a loser can get lucky once.

Perhaps somebody nefariously ramps one of your penny stocks while you’re spreadbetting in the men’s room – and now you’re faced with a massive winner on your hands!

Well, one way to ensure you keep as little of your capital gains as possible is to always invest outside of tax efficient ISAs and pensions.

This way you could be liable for capital gains tax when you sell – and if you receive any dividend income then you may well have to pay tax on that, too.

By shunning ISAs and pensions you stand the best chance of giving up a chunk of any profits that you should accidentally happen to make.

7. For professionals only: Fraudsters and boiler rooms

If you’re a mature professional who has enjoyed a lot of success in life, you probably feel that you’ve earned the right to avoid all this rigmarole when you want something done fast.

Well, the good news is you won’t necessarily have to get your hands dirty to be relieved of all your hard-earned wealth.

No, there’s an entire subterranean industry of hucksters, con men, scam artists and other criminals who just can’t wait to tell you about an investment that’s right for you.

An investment that will earn you at least 22% a year, and that is extremely timely (in fact, you might only have until next Tuesday to instruct your bank to wire them £39,232).

At this point though you and I must part ways.

You see, being a humble sort I’ve never been fortunate enough to be called by somebody who only has my best intentions at heart, and who for some reason wants me to get the guaranteed rock solid gains that they could otherwise enjoy for themselves.

However I do know from numerous consumer watchdog programs, regulatory warnings, biographies of gangsters and so forth that these things invariably end in tears.

So go ahead and ‘invest’ in that once in a lifetime opportunity – in the sure and certain knowledge that you’ll in no way derail your plans to end up far poorer at the end of 2016 than you began.

As they never said on Hill Street Blues

Let’s not be careful out there!

Note: If you’re a boring old traditionalist who wants to grow their wealth over the long-term rather than blow up in a blaze of glory, simply do the opposite of everything in this article to hugely improve your returns. But really, where’s the fun in that? You must be a hoot at parties!

{ 16 comments }

Weekend reading: Check out my skill

Weekend reading

Good reads from around the Web.

Are you lucky or skillful if you succeed at something? A pragmatic test – courtesy of author and banker Michael Mauboussin – is to see whether you can lose at the activity on purpose.

I’ve held a tennis racket on about 10 days of my life on Earth, and I’ve got the ball over the net and legally within the sidelines about as often.

Tennis clearly requires skill.

Flipping coins to win with heads but then trying to lose by getting tails?

Sheer luck.

I mention this because I’ve seen great evidence of my investing skill recently.

You remember how I bought a bunch of oil stocks outside of my ISA, so I could use any losses I generated to offset my capital gains tax bill?

Well, I’ve already generated losses! Enough to offset that surprise gain.

Go me – my little portfolio has lost 16% in just three weeks.

Talk about skill, eh?

[continue reading…]

{ 15 comments }

Vanguard’s new global factor investing ETFs

The behemoth fund group Vanguard Asset Management has launched four new global factor investing ETFs, based on the value, liquidity, momentum, and low volatility return premiums.

My thanks to reader Snowman for tipping us off about these new ETFs.

I haven’t seen an official press release on Vanguard’s UK website, but the factor ETFs are already being talked about in the investing media.

They are also listed on Vanguard’s UK index fund and ETF page:

Vanguard's four new factor ETFs are already listed on its website.

Vanguard’s four new factor ETFs listed on its website. Today.

Never mind the potential downsides – feel those low total expense ratios!

Here’s how Vanguard’s factsheets describe its new ETFs 1:

Vanguard Global Liquidity Factor UCITS ETF

The Fund pursues an actively-managed investment strategy.

The Investment Manager’s quantitative model implements a rules-based active approach that aims to assess the factor exposures of securities, favouring equity securities which, when compared to other securities in the investment universe, have low trading volumes and other measures of trading liquidity, including lower trading share and dollar volumes, based on percentage turnover, and price impact.

Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF

The Fund employs an active management strategy and will seek to achieve its investment objective by investing primarily in equity securities that are included in the FTSE Global All Cap Index.

The Investment Manager’s quantitative model evaluates the securities in the Benchmark by reference to characteristics designed to measure their exposure to a variety of factors that drive a security’s volatility such as industry sector, liquidity, size, value and growth. The model also assesses the interaction between these factors and their impact on the overall volatility of the portfolio.

The Fund will generally seek to hedge most of its currency exposure back to the U.S. dollar to further reduce overall portfolio volatility.

Vanguard Global Momentum Factor UCITS ETF

The Fund pursues an actively-managed investment strategy.

The Investment Manager’s quantitative model implements a rules-based active approach that aims to assess the factor exposures of securities, favouring equity securities which, when compared to other securities in the investment universe, have relatively strong recent past performance.

Past performance will be assessed in terms of both non risk-adjusted and risk adjusted return, over the shorter (approximately 6-months) and intermediate (approximately 12-months) periods prior to the acquisition of the securities by the Fund.

Vanguard Global Value Factor UCITS ETF

The Fund pursues an actively-managed investment strategy.

The Investment Manager’s quantitative model implements a rules-based active approach that aims to assess the factor exposures of securities, favouring equity securities which, when compared to other securities in the investment universe, have lower prices relative to their fundamental measures of value (which measures may include price-to-book or price-to-earnings ratio, estimated future earnings and operating cash flow).

Actively up and at ’em

What jumps out from these rather geeky descriptions is that they are all actively-managed ETFs, rather than index trackers.

This isn’t new territory for Vanguard. Despite its reputation among passive investors for cheap index tracking funds, the group has run active funds for decades. (Vanguard does emphasize low costs with its active products, too).

According to Alex Lomholt at Vanguard:

“Vanguard has chosen to take an active approach to managing these funds by using quantitative models to select stocks and build a portfolio that targets the desired factor whereas other managers may track an index to implement a factor-based strategy.

Investors need to be confident that the methodology chosen will deliver their desired factor exposure to meet long-term investment objectives.”

Of course, clued-up Monevator readers know that being confident that a product can deliver the exposure you want is one (important) thing.

But there’s no guarantee that even properly-implemented return premiums will outperform in the future.

Indeed none other than Vanguard’s founder Jack Bogle once said:

If you look at the long sweep of data going back into the ’20s – and, of course, data are suspect – but there are long periods, 20 years or so, when large do better than the small and when growth does better than value.

In the long run, it is correct, if you believe the data, that value does better than growth and that small does better than large.

But I’m of the school that says, if that is proven – and it is, I think, a little bit in the marketplace – if it is proven to be the case, then people will bid up the prices of value stocks and bid down the prices of growth stocks until they reach an equilibrium and then future returns will be the same.

So, I wonder first about the data; second, about trying to rely on something that happened in the past as a forecast of the future.

So, I don’t think you need to do it. It’s not going to be awful.

The fundamental thing: It’s all the same stocks; it’s just the different weights.

There is nothing awful about [factor-based funds].

But I would rather bet with the whole market and be guaranteed of my share of the return.

So who is right, Bogle – or for that matter our own contributor Lars Kroijer – or the academics who believe the factors will go on to beat the market in the future?

You pays your money and takes your choice – but at least you don’t pays so much money with Vanguard’s low-cost active ETFs, compared to say a factor-chasing hedge fund.

You can use the links at the top of the article for my co-blogger’s articles on the different risk factors, and on how they might give you an edge.

In addition, here’s some further reading:

  1. My bold, and I’ve edited out the blurb about the investing universe, which in every case but low-volatility is primarily the FTSE Developed All Cap Index and the Russell 3000 Index.[]
{ 49 comments }